What’s the best way to interpret the facts and data on Facts First?.What is the difference between cumulative and annualized performance?. This ensures a consistent starting point across all presidencies.Īlso, read these articles in our Learning Center: For jobs growth, it’s either first full calendar month in office (so if you are inaugurated in the middle of January, the first full month is February). For stock market performance, it is the first stock market day in office. We start measurement of performance for a president from the first full time period after their inauguration. Some metrics are measured daily (like stock market performance), monthly (like jobs growth) and quarterly (like GDP growth). After verifying the raw data, we then calculate updated cumulative and annualized performance data for the current president (the data for previous presidents have been calculated and verified in advance). Obama’s average two-year return during his second tenure was better than that of the comparable measures for his two successors.We capture the data as soon as it’s available to us – stock market data after daily market close, jobs data once a month and GDP data once a quarter. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index, rose 5.3% during the two-year period under Biden. averages to record highs in 2022 and the descent from there was steep, tempering the average returns of the S&P 500 for the two-year period. The post-COVID-19 recovery that manifested in the stock market took the major U.S. The stock market is often considered a barometer of a nation’s economic health, as it reflects the fortunes of companies across the sectors that often serve as the lifeblood of the economy. Market Performance: Biden was unfortunate enough to be caught in the maelstrom of multiple headwinds that pressured the stock market. *2022 growth is an estimate by the Conference Board as official numbers for the full year aren’t yet available Source: Self-generated chart using Bureau Of Economic Analysts data One should remember here that before COVID-19, the economy settled in a range of around 2% after it emerged from the Great Recession of 2007-2009. His predecessors’ reigns experienced fairly hassle-free growth, in line with slightly below the long-term trend. As the economy rebounded big in 2021, growth shot up sharply to 5.9%, thanks to stimulus measures. One can argue that the economic condition is to some extent a function of the policies of an administration.Įconomic Growth: Gross Domestic Product, a broader measure of broader economic performance, during the first year of Biden’s presidency, benefited from a strong rebound from a 2.8% decline amid the pandemic in 2020. It is important to take cognizance of the fact that an apples-to-apples comparison is unlikely, given the different sets of economic and geopolitical variables each of them may have faced during their tenure. Here’s a look at how Biden’s tenure compared with that of Trump and his predecessor Barack Obama on various fronts:įor comparison purposes, Barrack’s first two years of his second term (2013-14) and Trump’s first two years (2017-18) are considered. The war in Eastern Europe put further upward pressure on prices, fanning inflationary pressure further. The Russia-Ukraine war could not have come at a worse time. Monetary policy normalization started in March 2022 but financial markets began a downtrend ahead of it, pricing in potential rate hikes and their impact on economic growth. The Fed had to act to rein inflation, although critics blamed the central bank for a delayed policy response.
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